YouTube: Mortality Analysis, England

2 February 2021
Mortality Analysis England
Mortality Analysis England

An update on mortality in England for the last year or so in the context of the last 20, obviously focussed on the impact of COVID-19 and the appearance of something rather peculiar in the first couple of weeks of 2021.

Michael Yeadon made the observation on Joe Smalley‘s video:

I recommend this be viewed in its entirety. The geographic distinctions between the main pandemic & the autumn resurgence are very clear and this has important implications. What’s alarming is the marked, winter peak, which we’ve yet to understand if it’s turned or not (data due today). There’s something very remarkable though about this current peak. Unlike the autumn resurgence, which shows clear progression across the country with time, the current peak is completely synchronised. This, as the presenter notes, implies a new process. Two explanations which fit are offered. One is a simultaneous rebound following release from lockdown. The other relates to initiation of vaccination. Clearly, much more information is required to delineate these & other explanations for the notable excess deaths over & above ‘normal’ winter excess. It’s worth noting that never before have we experienced two peaks of death in the same winter season due to the same pathogen. Twin winter peaks of excess deaths aren’t unusual, but they’re always due to 2 pathogens & the second peak is generally smaller. All that said, however, we’ve never previously locked down an entire population, so it’s unclear to what extent we can rely on comparisons with trends from prior years.

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